No, we are not going to see any state secede in the foreseeable future.
But if we did…
Texas makes for an interesting case study because of its enormous landmass, population, and economy. Although any competent attempt to forecast the impact secession may have on the departing state – not to mention the jilted country – requires much more information and insight than a thirteen-hundred-word blog post from a non-expert can provide, here are a few thoughts. [1]
First, for all the Republican complaints about the federal government’s size and scope, it provides immense advantages. Sure, Texas would be rid of federal taxes and oversight, but it would lose grants and financial aid, military defense, border patrol, federal support for transportation infrastructure, education, benefits for low-income individuals, healthcare, economic development, emergency/disaster response assistance, and much more.
Maybe Texas would easily adjust to the United States government no longer serving as chief benefactor, and a free Texas may enjoy not contributing to the common welfare of other states. But consider that between 2000 and 2015, federal funding comprised approximately 34 percent of Texas’ net revenue. According to the Texas state comptroller for each of those years “Texas’ reliance on federal funds was higher than the average among states.”
Is that a revenue stream that Texas is willing to abandon?
Or consider Texas’ vast natural resource reserves. Texas produced more than 40% of oil and 23% of natural gas in the United States in 2019, more than any other state. At first glance, an independent Texas may view this as a relief from federal interference with its energy markets. It is a murky issue, though, and something Rachel Maddow highlighted in her recent book, writing, “special tax favors for oil and gas producers have been in force since Woodrow Wilson’s first year in office and still stand today, seventeen presidential administrations later, as the longest-running welfare program in the nation’s history.” [2]
Would Texas be better off not paying into the federal coffers but instead keeping its oil and gas revenue for itself? Or are federal subsidies so great that Texas’s fossil fuel industry would collapse without them? Could Texas as a petro state, maybe a member of OPEC, dictate terms of energy sales to the United States so one-sided that Texas reaps even greater revenues? Or would the United States decide investments in renewable energy were the wiser course that would quickly obviate the need for fossil fuels? Or would the U.S. simply find an alternative supplier for its fossil fuel needs? Would Texas leadership at some point decide to line their own pockets and nationalize the oil and gas industries as has happened in Russia, Venezuela, Equatorial Guinea, and elsewhere, leading to authoritarian kleptocracies?
Consider, too, that Texas has no individual state income tax. That currently is one of the most attractive factors for people who relocate there and a recruiting chip for companies seeking employees and investments. As an independent nation losing more than a third of its federal revenue stream, though, imposing a new personal tax might be necessary. Would a population declaring freedom from federal tyranny enjoy substituting one national tax for another? Would they end up paying fewer taxes? More?
And what about any non-Texans working or attending school within its borders? Would they want to stay in a foreign nation? Or would they be compelled to leave? The same question could be asked of the fifty Fortune 500 companies that are based in Texas. Would they all remain? There would likely be intense competition from the United States wooing the multinationals currently headquartered there. Texas would similarly attempt to recruit other corporations with friendly taxes and lax regulatory standards. But how much would the new nation need to compromise to compensate for no longer being part of the largest and most stable economy in the world?
How about immigration? Customs and Border Patrol, Department of Homeland Security, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement are all federal agencies. Would Texas start from scratch, or contract with the United States to provide those services? Would Texas have an open border with the U.S.?
What about national defense? Texas is home to eighteen American military bases, which the United States would probably wish to keep. The U.S. might withdraw the forces stationed there, destroying the local economies they support, as well as the means Texas has to repel invaders. Or the U.S. could maintain them as bases on foreign soil, as it currently does in seventy countries, and occupy independent Texas indefinitely.
What, then, of armed conflict? What if the United States decided to invade Texas, imprison its leaders, and recover all its natural resources? What if Texas, or a company headquartered there, say, ExxonMobil, engaged in behavior that angered the U.S.? Maybe for environmental degradation, or business conducted with state sponsors of terrorism, or an unwise incursion by a militia into U.S. territory? Could a free Texas survive withering American economic sanctions?
What if Texans in other parts of the state then decided they want their own country? Or they do not wish to leave the U.S.? El Paso in the western corner, so far from Texas’s heartland, may itch for its own independence. And it is critical to keep in mind that the six most populous counties in Texas went for the Biden/Harris Democratic ticket in the 2020 election. Those counties include the state’s largest metropolitan areas: Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio.
So, if the Republican-controlled state legislature decided to secede, without a referendum by popular vote, would the overwhelmingly Democratic-voting population in all six of those counties quietly agree with the decision? Or, even if the state held a secession referendum in which the majority voted “Leave,”, would “Remain” voters – a likely sizeable contingent – agree to flee the United States because the Republican Party is unhappy with the federal government? Would “Remainers” be forced to renounce American citizenship? Would everyone become Texas citizens exclusively? What kind of internal strife, protests, and riots would result? Would we see a Texas civil war?
And what about currency? And bank deposit insurance? Or stock markets? International treaties and trade agreements? Airports? Seaports? National parks and other U.S. federal land? River and maritime navigation? Offshore oil drilling and exploration? Farm subsidies? Jurisprudence and common law? Political affiliation? Universities?
These are just a handful of the countless items that leaders would need to consider if seriously thinking about abandoning the United States. Texans planning for sovereignty have probably addressed those issues and many others.
But maybe not.
Even if they did, what would be the messaging? Keep in mind that muddying the waters to create and rely on an uninformed electorate to vote against its best interests is nothing new. How honest – not to mention accurate – could any assessment of secession be?
So far, such talk is bluster and frustration. Perhaps, though, before political leaders in Mississippi, Texas, Wyoming, and elsewhere begin frothing up the populace with the promised riches of independence, they should consider what they might lose. Because they might not know what they’ve got until it’s gone.
[1] The Texas Nationalist Movement has a page with answers to questions regarding many of the issues I raise. Subjectively, I found some of the answers pretty wishful thinking. My own list of considerations is not a point/counterpoint, but what I thought of off the top of my head. https://tnm.me/texit
[2] Maddow, Rachel. Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and The Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth. Crown 2019. See p. 46 and 73 for discussion of oil and gas federal taxes and subsidies.
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